Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Is the AI trade finally cracking, or is this just another shakeout before the next leg higher? Jack and Max dig into the growing stress in AI-linked credit, where lenders and bondholders are starting to question how much debt the data center buildout can really support. They break down SpaceX’s earnings and what the numbers reveal about the economics behind one of the most closely watched companies in the world. From there, the conversation turns to semiconductors and whether chip stocks are pricing in a slowdown or still running on hype. Along the way, they look at where the risks are building, who’s most exposed if AI spending cools, and how investors can position for both outcomes. Whether you’re long the AI trade, short it, or somewhere in between, this episode is for you. Important Information The Fund’s investment objectives, risks,…

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Jim Bianco of Bianco Research called the 2022 bond bear market and stayed bearish on bonds for six years. Now, for the first time since then, he’s constructive. Jim explains why 5% yields aren’t punishing but normal: rates should roughly track nominal GDP growth, and he expects the U.S. economy to grow at 5–6% nominally. He makes the case that inflation is stuck at 3% because the era of cheap Chinese goods is over, and explains why oil is already effectively $200 a barrel once you count tanker costs and naval security in the Strait of Hormuz. He also covers why diesel shows up in the price of everything, and why Kevin Warsh scrapping forward guidance has left markets feeling around in the dark. On credit, Jim explains why the blowout in CCC bonds, CoreWeave included, is a handful of problem kids in detention rather than a canary in the…

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Ben Inker, Co-Head of Asset Allocation at GMO, joins Other People’s Money to discuss why the IPOs and subsequent shareholder unlocks of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will bring an unprecedented amount of equity issuance and pop the AI bobble. Inker explains how this mechanism was responsible for popping tech bubbles in 2000 and 2021 and the mathematical relationship between below average equity returns and equity supply. He also outlines how this equity supply in conjunction with a slowdown in the AI buildout from realizations of an AI overbuild could send the stock market down as much as 50% with even greater pain for the most AI linked companies. Read GMO’s Q3 2026 Quarterly Letter: https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articles/quarterly-letter/2026/gmo-quarterly-letter_3q-2026.pdf Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other…

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Charles Lemonides, CIO and founder of ValueWorks LLC, joins Other People’s Money to discuss why the 18-year bull market still has room to run. Lemonides argues that we have not yet reached the explosive "liftoff" phase typical of late-stage bull markets and explains why the biggest gains often come right before the turn. He shares his strategy for finding "growth in value's clothing," highlighting high-upside opportunities in semiconductors, rideshare, delivery, and offshore energy. Plus, he breaks down where he sees extreme overvaluation in the market and breaks down his most compelling short positions. Learn more about ValueWorks: https://www.valueworksllc.com/ Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X…

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Semiconductor earnings have roughly doubled this year, yet chip multiples have compressed and the stocks are still well off their June highs. Stacy Rasgon, Managing Director and Senior Analyst covering U.S. semiconductors and semicap equipment at Bernstein, joins Jack to explain what the market fears and why he thinks the cycle peak isn't here yet. Fresh off his annual Silicon Valley roadshow, Stacy says demand is "off the charts," nobody has enough compute, and the real constraints are land, power, and clean rooms rather than customer appetite. He explains why Nvidia and Broadcom have lagged the "bottleneck" trades in memory, optics, and power, and why both could trade at 11–12x earnings if their growth targets hold. The conversation covers the HBM-driven memory squeeze, his path to $300 billion-plus in wafer fab equipment spending, and…

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Crude tanker rates have exploded to more than $1 million per day on some Middle East Gulf to China voyages, roughly 25 times normal levels, as the Iran war and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz throw global oil shipping into chaos. J Mintzmyer, founder of Value Investors Edge, joins Jack to explain why disruption and inefficiency are rocket fuel for ship owners, why "ton miles" are the real commodity, and why real-time AIS ship-tracking data in the Strait can't be trusted. J argues today's spot rates are unsustainable on a timescale of days or weeks, warns that the BWET freight ETF (up roughly 4,000% this year) could get smashed when rates turn, and lays out the wave of new tanker supply set to arrive in 2027–2028. He separates rates, ship values, and tanker equities, flagging Nordic American (NAT) as an avoid, naming Okeanis Eco Tankers…

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Ed Zitron, author of the Where's Your Ed At newsletter and host of the Better Offline podcast, returns to Monetary Matters to break down Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus, as reported by Reuters. Ed argues that in 2025 Anthropic spent $2.75 for every dollar of revenue, worse than OpenAI's $2.60, and that nearly half its sales ran through Google and Amazon, two companies that also compete with it. We discuss Anthropic's $518 billion in compute commitments, why AI "run rate" figures can be misleading, and what the reported surge in 2026 revenue does and doesn't tell us. Ed also gives his take on Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots, and on whether AI agents can win over consumers. Then we turn to the credit markets: CoreWeave's borrowing costs, Oracle's ratings risk, data center SPVs trading below par, and how much of this debt sits with private…

Ben Pouladian of BEP Research returns to Monetary Matters to break down who's winning and losing in AI right now, starting with Meta's Muse, the consumer agent he calls the "McDonald's version" of AI, and why he thinks its revenue will come mostly from ads rather than subscriptions, especially across WhatsApp-first markets like India and Brazil. Ben explains why the token bill for agentic AI dwarfs the CPU bill, why the key metric is becoming cost per token per megawatt, and why he believes "all roads and rockets lead to NVIDIA." He makes the case against AMD, including his open letter to Lisa Su and the scaling challenges of the Helios rack, and argues that NVIDIA GPUs are the "Rodeo Drive" of digital real estate because they are fungible and financeable in a way custom ASICs are not. Jack pushes back with TrendForce data showing every part of the AI supply chain is tight except GPUs, and Ben responds that commodity bottlenecks like memory and hard drives get crushed once supply catches up, while the true…

James Elbaor, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Marlton LLC joins OPM to discuss why the private credit boom is officially over. Elbaor explains how artificial intelligence is threatening the SaaS businesses that make up over half a trillion dollars of private credit exposure, while also detailing how liquidity gates are currently trapping investors in massive interval funds like BCRED. The discussion concludes by exploring lucrative upcoming merger opportunities in the public BDC space and analyzing why asset managers utilizing permanent capital vehicles are being rewarded with premium market multiples. Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login Follow James on X: https://x.com/jameselbaor Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is…

Henry Peabody, senior investment strategist at GMO, joins Monetary Matters to explain why the Fed has an unofficial third mandate: managing how credit flows through an economy that is increasingly outside the banks. With private credit and fixed-rate borrowing loosening the link between Fed policy and the real economy, Henry argues that rate hikes are hitting consumers and weaker borrowers while large corporates and the AI complex keep borrowing almost regardless of cost. That bifurcation, he says, means the Fed may have to take rates higher than anyone expects to cool demand, adding risk to markets. Jack and Henry discuss the opacity of private credit, why the credit cycle is "one of the most dependable things in finance," why recoveries on software loans could be close to zero, and the lessons of BDCs in 2008. Henry also shares how GMO is positioning in fixed income: less duration and less vanilla credit risk, more short-duration structured credit, and a preference for emerging market local debt. They…

Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 style bear market. He also explores the global coordination of rate hikes and why he believes the participation of lower growth economies like Canada indicate that this is a reaction to higher energy prices and not a substantially higher global neutral rate. Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login Follow Eric on X: https://x.com/ericwallerstein Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a…

Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login Jérémie Boyer, co-founder of Aurelion Research, joins OPM to give his outlook for 5 key commodities. He explains why after avoiding earlier downside volatility in gold he just got the buy signal he’s been waiting for, and why the longer-term AI driven bull thesis on copper is very real and happening now. He also gives his outlook for uranium, fertilizer, and oil and discusses how he and his partner turn commodity views into a portfolio of equities that is up over 100% since inception a little over 1-year ago. Aurelion Research: https://aurelionresearch.com/ Follow Aurelion Research on X: https://x.com/AurelionRsch Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and…

Jack Farley is joined by David Busch, Chief Investment Officer of Trajan Wealth, to discuss rising U.S. Treasury yields, persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Busch breaks down the structural drivers behind elevated bond yields, including $40 trillion in national debt, geopolitical energy shocks, and massive corporate debt issuance for AI infrastructure. He explains how higher interest rates and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s bond buyback program impact market liquidity and equity valuations. Moving to equities, Busch argues that software stocks like Intuit are heavily oversold regarding perceived AI disruption risks. He highlights the real bottleneck of the AI boom, pointing to critical supply needs in energy, rare earth minerals, and nuclear power. Busch also warns investors about hidden credit and liquidity dangers within private credit markets. Finally, he lays out why 3-to-5-year U.S. Treasuries still serve as an essential portfolio ballast in high-yield…

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Get 15% off any paid tier at: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/mm/ Former Fed trader Joseph Wang joins Jack Farley live to break down Chair Kevin Warsh's third meeting — and his first rate hike, framed as "removing a dose of accommodation" against a Middle East oil-shock backdrop. Joseph explains why he called the hawkish move well ahead of the consensus, reading the Jackson Hole signals on financial conditions and the new emphasis on the "speed" of returning to target. The conversation digs into the hawkish dot plot and higher-for-longer path, what a supply-shock reaction function means for the long bond and 30-year TIPS, mortgage rates above 7%, and the plumbing beneath it all — repo, SOFR, the basis trade, and Treasury buybacks. In the second half, Max Wiethe joins to make the case for refiners as the trade of the year, walking through crack spreads, Marathon and Valero, Chinese crude flows, and diesel and fertilizer dynamics. They close on long-bond…

Precious metal and base metal prices have soared as have many mining stocks, but despite this, Freddy Brick, partner at Muddy Waters Capital says that the industry feels closer to left for dead than euphoric. He explains why that setup and the consistency of the mispricing in the sector brought them to launch a fund with the help of mining expert Darren McLean allowing them to take concentrated investments in the assets they think the market is overlooking while running lower net exposure. He also discusses how they think about hedging in the sector, why they take a bottom-up approach to portfolio construction, and how they approach short and long activism in the sector. Follow Muddy Waters on X: https://x.com/muddywatersre Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:28 Approach to Portfolio Construction 07:56 Fraud Report Origin…

Learn more about LandFund Partners: https://landfundpartners.com/invest#get-started Jack Farley speaks with John Farris, founder & CEO of LandFund Partners and former World Bank agricultural economist, about the tightening global food equation — and where the return actually comes from in farmland. The setup: if the world stopped growing crops tomorrow, John says there are roughly 70 days of food in reserve, down from 110 a decade ago. Two billion more people, more protein per capita, less arable land, and productivity gains that have flattened out. Into that comes a Super El Niño that John's heat maps suggest will hit Brazil, Argentina, and India — the last of which depends on the monsoon to grow the world's most-consumed calorie: rice. Commodity futures prices have risen significantly this year. That's the backdrop. The investment argument rests on three things.The first is a value that sits on no balance sheet. Across most of the eastern US there are no formal water rights, so LandFund carries its water…

Andrew Granato, Assistant Professor of Law at the University of Texas at Austin, and Pranjal Drall, JD/PhD candidate at Yale, join Jack Farley to discuss their paper "Private Credit, State Backstop: How Private Equity Socializes Risk Through Insurers." Private equity ownership of life insurers has grown from roughly $23 billion in 2009 to about $700 billion by 2024, and Granato and Drall argue this has created a system that socializes losses even more sharply than federal deposit insurance does for banks. They walk through how state guarantee funds work: when a life insurer fails, its surviving rivals are assessed based on premium volume rather than risk, and in 44 states those assessments are recouped through tax credits, meaning taxpayers ultimately foot the bill without any vote ever taking place. The conversation covers how PE-linked insurers reallocate balance sheets into opaque private credit and affiliated loans, arbitrage ratings through firms like Egan-Jones and undisclosed private letter ratings,…

Jared Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtmap and the new book “The Awesome Portfolio”, returns to argue that the bond bear market is a sentiment story that has gone too far. Jared calls the market's obsession with deficits and inflation a "mind virus," notes that the $2 trillion deficit is only 6% of GDP versus 12% in 2010, and points out that everyone measures bond supply while nobody measures demand. He has moved a large share of his own money into long bonds as a three-to-five-year hold, calling 5.2–5.3% on 30s and 4.7% on 10s an incredible deal, especially with payrolls deteriorating, JOLTS and PMIs rolling over, and the market still pricing meaningful odds of a hike. On equities, Dillian walked the top 50 S&P charts and sees semis, healthcare, and financials topping — the broker-dealers look worst — while Intel and Oracle look like they're bottoming. He and Jack debate whether the semiconductor washout is over, disagree on where the leverage actually sits (Jack cites Vanda data showing retail positioning…

Max Wiethe sits down with Capelight Partners founder Jeff Keller to dissect the massive Q3 technology sector divergence and the rapidly shifting landscape of AI investments. Keller breaks down why the market is rewarding near-term certainty in the tech sector and why he doesn’t like the "blow-off top" comparison between AI and the ARK implosion of 2021. He also gives his outlook for usage-based software vs. application software and explains the east coast vs west coast divide in assessing hyperscaler capex. Follow Jeff Keller on X: https://x.com/jeffkeller1 Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:13 Tech Sector Divergence 05:23 Cyber Infra Valuation Risks 08:09 Why Themes Beat Stock Picking 12:01 Valuation and Forecast Limits 17:35 Retail Crowding Warning 20:15 2021Parallels 23:33 Rising Rates and Funding the AI Buildout 27:28…

Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN): https://teucrium.com/corn Jim Wiederhold, Commodity Indices Product Manager at Bloomberg, joins Monetary Matters for a deep dive into what's really driving this commodities cycle. We start with the AI buildout and why it's quietly becoming one of the biggest demand stories in copper and silver, not just semiconductors. From there, Jim breaks down why central banks keep adding to record gold reserves, and makes the case for why silver could still have room to run. On energy, we get into how much sanctioned oil is still finding its way to market, why refined products have outperformed crude itself, and whether $200 oil is really back on the table. Jim also lays out the case for commodities as a genuine diversifier against stocks and bonds, pointing to how the asset class held up when equities didn't. We close on the "everything rally" — why nearly every corner of the commodity complex is moving at once — and a few overlooked names, from agriculture to industrial…

Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/globalmacro In this episode of "Other People's Money," host Max Wiethe welcomes back Warren Pies, co-founder of 3Fourteen Research, to unpack why macro risks are suddenly taking control of the stock market. Pies explains his tactical decision to downgrade stocks and commodities to neutral, shifting capital into cash as the market enters a historically weak seasonal window between August 15th and October 15th. The conversation dives deep into the Federal Reserve's true reaction function, the mispriced odds of a September rate hike, and the hidden political pressures driving the committee's choices. Furthermore, they discuss the critical data behind the AI build-out, including H200 GPU availability and the potential impact of major lab IPOs like Anthropic on the broader software sector. Save $500/year on Caliban AI from 3Fourteen Research: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/monetary-matters Follow Warren Pies on X:…

In this episode of Other People's Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with High Yield Harry to examine the major trends in Wall Street compensation and careers, and why 2026 may be the year of the investment banker. Harry shares data from Buy Side Hub to detail buy-side compensation trends, career mobility bottlenecks, and why private equity professionals are resorting to non-recourse loans while waiting on delayed exits. The conversation breaks down the real threat of AI automation on financial modeling and grunt work, emphasizing why finance professionals must develop real-economy operating skills to survive. They also address the surge in private credit redemptions, retail investor panic, and whether buying small businesses is replacing the traditional mega-fund career path. Check out Buyside Hub: https://www.buysidehub.com Follow High Yield Harry on X: https://x.com/HighyieldHarry Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify…

Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN): https://teucrium.com/corn Luke Gromen — founder of Forest for the Trees (FFTT) Research — returns to Monetary Matters the same week Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of Treasury buybacks, and Luke argues it's the first real admission that the U.S. has what his firm calls an "emerging market hard currency debt spiral problem." The math that doesn't work: Luke breaks down why entitlements, interest, and veterans benefits now total 105% of federal receipts — and why that obligation is "hard currency" the government can't inflate away, growing 7.5% a year against receipts growing only 4%. The gold revaluation scenario: Step by step, Luke lays out how the Treasury could legally revalue U.S. gold reserves from $42/oz to $20,000/oz under existing Federal Reserve accounting rules, mechanically depositing roughly $5 trillion into the TGA — and stages it as the FDR "fireside chat" he'd give the country to explain it. Grading his own Iran war calls: Luke…

Andy Unanue, Founder and Managing Partner of AUA Private Equity Partners and former COO of Goya Foods breaks down the trillion-dollar opportunity in US food, beverage, and pet wellness family businesses. Andy shares how his experience in a family-run business shaped his firm's strategy of partnering with lower-middle-market, family-run companies across those sectors and explains how AUA unlocks 15% to 30% operational efficiencies. The discussion dives into major consumer trends, including the humanization of pets, the rise of ethnic food markets, and the impact of GLP-1 drugs on snacking habits. Finally, Andy offers actionable advice on navigating generational wealth transfers, building positive workplace cultures, and transitioning family enterprises for long-term success. Learn more about AUA Private Equity Partners: https://auaequity.com Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube…

Robin Wigglesworth — editor of FT Alphaville and author of A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World — joins Jack Farley to unpack the hidden debt fueling the AI buildout. Wigglesworth reveals that off-balance-sheet leverage from hyperscalers like Meta, Google, and Microsoft jumped from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in a single quarter, hidden in lease structures and purchase commitments that never show up as debt — including Google's own $800 billion in disclosed obligations. He argues the NVIDIA-Blackstone-KKR financing wave marks a shift from an equity-driven boom to a debt cycle, a distinction that makes today's AI buildout riskier than the dot-com bust ever was. The conversation moves from private credit's "spray and pray" lending problem to nine centuries of financial history — the Erie Canal boom, the 1873 railway mania, and the 19th-century fraudster who invented an entire country to sell government bonds. They close on whether credit rating agencies can survive the…

Milton Berg, one of Wall Street's legendary market technicians, returns to Monetary Matters to explain why he believes the recent crash across the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, KOSPI, and semiconductor stocks has already bottomed — and why he's still positioned long despite major caveats. The positive divergence call: Milton breaks down why the S&P 500's July 29th low held above its June 9th low even as the Nasdaq 100 and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) made new lows — a classic technical signal he says points to higher prices ahead. The 1987 crash comparison: Using historical crash-low data, Milton shows how markets rarely V-bottom and go straight up — and lays out why the current setup looks more like 1987 (a retest of the lows) than the COVID V-shaped recovery. The "exhaustive gap" warning: Despite his bullish lean, Milton flags a specific gap pattern in the Nasdaq 100 and KOSPI that has historically signaled short-term tops — and explains what would need to happen for it to resolve bullishly instead.…

Monetary Matters listeners can get 20% off subscriptions for one year here (billed quarterly): https://pernasresearch.com/register/monetary-matters/?coupon=monetarymatters In this episode of Monetary Matters, Jack Farley sits down with Deiya and Dean Pernas of Pernas Research to discuss their contrarian investment strategies and overarching market themes. The brothers delve into the massive energy demands of AI data centers, highlighting "bring your own power" solutions and infrastructure needs over traditional semiconductor plays. Additionally, Deiya explores the evolving landscape of cybersecurity and software in the age of AI, noting that while AI threatens some legacy software moats, it creates immense opportunities for exposure management platforms like Tenable and specialized marketplaces like Upwork. The conversation also unpacks the payments sector, specifically emphasizing the robust growth of cross-border money movement through fintechs like Wise and Remitly as they actively disrupt traditional…

Victor Haghani — founder of Elm Wealth, co-author of “The Missing Billionaires” and former founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management — joins Monetary Matters to explain why the stock market doesn't follow a random walk. Drawing on his new paper "Who Killed the Random Walk?", Victor lays out a model where value investors, static asset allocators, and "extrapolators" interact to produce the excess volatility, momentum, and boom-bust cycles that classical finance theory can't explain. Jack and Victor debate whether passive investing is really to blame for market distortions, why stock buybacks are propping up the entire market, and why Elm Wealth's own models say US equities should only return about 6% a year despite blistering AI-driven earnings growth. Victor also breaks down the strange truth that "return chasing" and momentum investing sound identical but perform in opposite ways — and reveals how Elm actually allocates client capital across US and international stocks today. Recorded before Leopold…

In this episode, host Jack sits down with Tian Yang, co-founder and head of research at Variant Perception, to analyze the current macroeconomic landscape and equity market outlook. Tian shares why macro indicators point to a broadly supportive "risk-on" environment over the next three to six months despite recent pullbacks in semiconductor and tech stocks. He discusses the exhaustion of the agentic AI rally, explaining how capital is actively rotating into value laggards such as energy, financials, and healthcare. Tian also breaks down their Log Periodic Power Law (LPPL) framework, a tactical model designed to detect market bubbles and exhaustion signals to help time entries and exits. Beyond equities, the discussion covers broader macro dynamics, including central bank policy expectations, geopolitical supply-side shocks, and regional preferences for Latin America over markets in Europe and India. Finally, Tian details the systematic strategy behind their VPX ETF, which dynamically combines capital cycle,…

In this episode, Jack sits down with Kathryn Rooney Vera, Chief Market Strategist at StoneX Group, to unpack the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates and Chair Warsh's transition toward a quieter, laissez-faire communication style. Kathryn shares her macroeconomic outlook, forecasting that we may still see rate hikes post-election unless widespread AI adoption delivers a significant productivity boost to offset inflation. Later in the show, Jack is joined by Max Wiethe for a live, unfiltered reaction to the latest mega-cap tech earnings from Microsoft and Meta. They analyze Microsoft's massive revenue and 43% Azure cloud growth, weighing these strong figures against the company's aggressive $41 billion in quarterly capital expenditures. Jack then bluntly breaks down Meta's quarterly results, labeling it a "disaster" due to a 55% surge in costs, an 8% drop in operating income, and unexpectedly weak forward guidance. Finally, the duo wraps up with a look at the semiconductor space, assessing how…

Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, sites down with Max Wiethe to dissect the escalating crisis in the global bond market. Gromen argues that off-balance sheet liabilities, such as baby boomer retirements and surging veterans' benefits, are colliding with massive defense spending to force a dangerous inflationary spiral. He unpacks how "defense stimmies" from nations like Japan and Germany are turning historical creditors into aggressive bond sellers, putting immense pressure on yields. Throughout the conversation, Gromen also issues a stark warning about the AI tech bubble, the incoming policies of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and why China's massive gold accumulation is a major red flag for the US dollar. Read The Forest for the Trees: https://fftt-llc.com Follow Luke Gromen on X: https://x.com/LukeGromen Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify…

In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack sits down with Nicholas Brooks, Head of Economic and Investment Research at ICG, to discuss the true health of private credit and corporate balance sheets. Brooks argues that underlying corporate fundamentals and EBITDA growth remain highly resilient against macroeconomic and geopolitical noise. He notes that corporate interest coverage ratios are stabilizing in Europe and actually improving in the United States, pointing away from any imminent, systemic private sector risks. Instead, Brooks warns that the most significant medium-term threat to the global economy stems from soaring government debt and unchecked fiscal deficits, which could spark future market volatility and further weaken the U.S. dollar. The conversation also explores how massive capital expenditures in artificial intelligence infrastructure are currently acting as a protective buffer for the broader economy, even as the ultimate, long-term impacts on worker productivity remain uncertain.…

Learn more about Teucrium’s Soybean ETF (SOYB) here: https://teucrium.com/soyb Free E-book from Teucrium: https://insights.teucrium.com/why-investors-turning-to-commodity-etfs In this episode of Other People's Money, Max Wiethe sits down with hedge fund manager Russell Clark to discuss why he believes the U.S. Treasury market is a much larger and more dangerous speculative bubble than AI. Clark details his macroeconomic outlook, arguing that a shifting political landscape focused on 7% wage growth and lower living costs will eventually push the 10-year Treasury yield up to an astonishing 10%. To stabilize affordability for younger generations, he predicts real estate will remain flat nominally while heavily declining in real terms. Clark also breaks down the massive capital expenditures in AI, viewing them as defensive strategies by legacy tech giants to protect their moats rather than mere speculation. Finally, Clark also warns about sectors reliant on low rates and the severe illiquidity and mispriced…

Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN): https://teucrium.com/corn Private credit has ballooned to roughly a trillion dollars, but Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets argues the danger isn't the banking system — it's insurance. In this Monetary Matters interview with Jack Farley, Nemeth lays out how private-equity-owned insurers have become highly leveraged holders of private credit and CLOs, why he thinks annuity surrenders could spark a run with no federal backstop, and how adjusted EBITDA, layered leverage, and lax loan ratings mirror the setup before 2008 — except, in his view, the scale looks more like 1929. He closes with contrarian rankings of Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, and Blue Owl. Recorded July 14, 2026. Teucrium on X https://x.com/TeucriumETFs Nick Nemeth on X https://x.com/NickNemo17 Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Nick Nemeth’s article, “The Smart Money Is the Subprime This Time”: https://mispricedassets.substack.com/p/the-smart-money-is-the-subprime-this Follow Monetary Matters on:…

Moritz Seibert and Moritz Heiden of Takahe Capital dive deep into the mechanics of high-octane trend-following strategies and unpack why they target 25-30% annualized volatility, bucking the institutional trend of lower volatility to capture massive outlier trades like the recent cocoa and gold runs. They explore the heated debate between dynamic position sizing and classic approaches, revealing why letting winners run is crucial for massive returns. The conversation also touches on the emerging world of perpetual futures on decentralized platforms and why keeping trading models simple often beats complex fundamental analysis. Follow Moritz Seibert on X: https://x.com/moritzseibert Follow Moritz Heiden on X: https://x.com/moritzheiden Follow Takahe Capital on X: https://x.com/TakaheCapital Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro…

In this episode of Monetary Matters, Jack Farley sits down with semiconductor analyst Ben Pouladian of BEP Research to unpack the complex hardware supply chain powering the AI revolution. Pouladian pushes back against the bear argument that the current boom is merely a dot-com bubble repeat, explaining why Nvidia's ability to generate "intelligence" differs vastly from Cisco's networking commodities. He reveals that the true bottleneck in AI deployment is no longer a GPU shortage, but rather a severe lack of energized land and the tradesmen needed to build physical data centers. The conversation also dives into Pouladian's "token dollar" thesis, exploring how the global race for maximum compute-per-watt has become a modern geopolitical space race between the U.S. and China. For investors, Pouladian breaks down his top stock picks, including his unwavering bullishness on Nvidia, Apple's vital role in consumer AI privacy, and Bloom Energy's unique solution to the data center power crunch. Whether you are an…

Sean McGould, CEO and CIO of $19 billion hedge fund manager The Lighthouse Group, joins OPM to discuss navigating today's bull market by targeting diverse sources of global alpha. The conversation focuses on Japan as a new source of alpha, spurred by the country's historic corporate governance reforms, the unwinding of cross-shareholdings, and the new NISA guidelines driving unprecedented retail investment. Additionally, McGould breaks down how the AI capital expenditure arms race is shaping global equity issuance and explains why the multi-manager "pod shop" model is the true modern successor to Wall Street's legacy proprietary trading desks. Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Japan Market Shift 01:29 Lighthouse Group 04:53 Why Hedge in Bull Runs? 10:43 Equity Issuance Signals 13:33 Capex Versus Meme Raises 16:27 AI Inside…

Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm It's no secret that the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, prefers the Federal Reserve to have a smaller balance sheet, perhaps a much, much smaller balance sheet. The consequences of this range from the mundane to the profound, but what is without question is that in order to reduce the Fed's balance sheet, there need to be additional tools to reduce reserve demand from the banking system. Stanford Professor Darrell Duffie returns to Monetary Matters to explain that to safely reduce Fed assets, policymakers must first address the liability side of the ledger by drastically lowering commercial banks' high demand for reserve balances. If the Fed simply sells off assets without adjusting this structural demand, it risks losing control of interest rates and sparking extreme volatility in repo funding markets, similar to the disruptions witnessed in September 2019. To prevent such a liquidity crisis, Duffie outlines four crucial policy tools from…

Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack sits down with Josh Pristaw, President of the $73 Billion real estate firm Clarion Partners, to decode the smartest institutional property plays for the new 2026 market cycle. Pristau incisively breaks down why Clarion avoids the massive concentration risks of direct data center development, opting instead to capitalize on the AI and e-commerce boom through their $42 billion industrial and logistics portfolio. He reveals senior housing as the firm's highest conviction asset class, driven by an undeniable demographic tsunami where 10,000 Americans turn 80 daily, demanding a quintupling of current supply pipelines. Listeners will also gain deep insights into the multifamily rental market's recovery, which is currently being fueled by peak household formation demographics and stabilizing lease trade-outs. Conversely, Pristau outlines a starkly bearish case for non-trophy office spaces, citing…

In this episode, veteran investor and macro strategist Erik from the Erik YWR Substack breaks down his bold bull thesis projecting the S&P 500 to hit 10,000 by the end of 2027. Drawing on his past investing experience in Africa, Erik introduces "Project Zimbabwe," explaining why higher inflationary eras trigger an "upward crash" where nominal assets like stocks and real estate surge even when the broader economy feels sluggish. He challenges today’s market bears by comparing the current AI and semiconductor boom to the 1999 dot-com era, arguing that accelerating earnings growth and revolutionary technology could justify significantly higher market multiples. Beyond the tech trade, Erik highlights massive opportunities in European and Japanese banks transitioning back to a "risk-on" posture, alongside financial exchanges like CME and ICE that stand to thrive on rising market speculation. He also candidly addresses his toughest underperforming trades in Hong Kong and Chinese tech, differentiating between…

Leading IPO researcher Jay Ritter, widely known as "Mr. IPO" and the director of the IPO Initiative at the University of Florida's Warrington College of Business breaks down the historic 2026 public market landscape. Ritter analyzes the unprecedented potential for a wave of mega-IPOs from tech giants like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. He dives into the realities of staggering price-to-sales ratios, warning that while AI offers immense technological promise, eye-watering trillion-dollar valuations leave very little room for error. Ritter also cuts through the hype surrounding retail access to venture capital and private equity, explaining why extra layers of middlemen, "volatility washing," and an evaporating illiquidity premium mean average investors aren't actually missing out on a free lunch. Professor Ritter’s IPO Data: https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/ipo-data/ Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify…

Liaquat Ahamed, legendary financial historian and author, joins Jack to discuss his latest book, "1873: The Rothschilds, the First Great Depression, and the Making of the Modern World.” Ahamed unpacks the 1873 financial crisis, explaining how Germany's abrupt move from silver to gold during a market panic triggered a massive global scramble for precious metals and severe deflation. He details the preceding infrastructure boom driven by the Rothschilds' bond market expansion, which eventually collapsed due to excessive railroad construction and the infamous Credit Mobilier corruption scandal. Transitioning to modern markets, Ahamed compares the 19th-century railway mania to today's trillion-dollar global AI and data center investment boom. He warns that fierce competition in the AI sector could lead to poor returns and a series of mini boom-bust cycles. While expressing concern over modern speculative bubbles in crypto and loose central bank policies, Ahamed remains hopeful that these technological…

In this episode of Other People's Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with Shashank Chiranewala, founder of the new investment platform Plutus, to explore the future of independent research and portfolio management. Shashank explains why his platform is fundamentally different from the copy trading trend, emphasizing the importance of aligning model portfolios with an investor's unique risk-reward needs rather than blindly following a single strategy. They dive into the technical nightmares of executing global, active strategies on your own—like navigating foreign market rules and tracking errors—and how Plutus provides an automated, seamless execution solution for both individual and professional investors. Finally, they discuss why top independent researchers from Substack and FinTwit are choosing to list their portfolios on Plutus rather than launching traditional fund vehicles. Check out Plutus: https://www.runplutus.com/ Follow Plutus on X: https://x.com/RunPlutus Follow Shashank on X:…

Ed Zitron is one of the most prolific skeptic of the AI Boom. Having just reported OpenAI’s 2025 financial loss, he joins Jack to argue that the sheer size of the losses by the large language model (LLM) companies are unsustainable and the operational costs of training and running LLMs far exceeds the revenue customers are willing to pay. Ed also discusses Meta’s confusing AI strategy, the risk (and fall?) of the tokenmaxxing era, and Anthropic’s suspension of Fable 5. Recorded June 19, 2026. Pieces discussed in the interview: “Exclusive: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, With Spending Hitting $34 Billion”: https://www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-openai-financials/ “AI Is Slowing Down”: https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down/ “AI's Brokenomics”: https://www.wheresyoured.at/brokenomics/ “OpenAI spending hit $34bn last year ahead of planned IPO”: https://www.ft.com/content/e15b0d7e-ff6b-4f16-ba7a-4068feddb828?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Follow Ed Zitron on X https://x.com/edzitron Follow Jack Farley on X…

In this panel at MacroMinds Symposium, Jack Farley sits down with legendary short seller Jim Chanos and Val Zlatev, Portfolio Manager and Partner at Analog Century Management, to analyze the long and short opportunities of the AI and semiconductor boom. Chanos highlights a significant timing disconnect wherein chip suppliers recognize revenues immediately while hyperscalers capitalize their massive infrastructure costs—a trend mirroring the late-1990s CapEx boom before tech earnings collapsed by 40%. Chanos expresses deep skepticism toward "neo-cloud" data center developers like CoreWeave, modeling a very generous ten-year GPU lifespan (depreciation schedule) to forecast low pre-tax returns on invested capital. From a micro perspective, Val Zlatev outlines the structural upside for high-demand memory stocks, noting they trade at cheap forward multiples because physical supply chain constraints hard-cap semiconductor equipment manufacturing growth at 30% annually. The discussion also scrutinizes Elon Musk’s…

In this episode of Other People’s Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with Chris Semenuk, an investment partner at Tema ETFs, to discuss the massive secular tailwinds driving the US manufacturing and electrification renaissance. Semenuk argues that after a three-year recession and decades of underinvestment, US industrial capacity and manufacturing are finally entering a powerful recovery cycle. Moving beyond the hype of AI and hyperscalers, they explore how "boring" short-cycle industrial companies like those producing essential components like ball bearings, pneumatics, and filters are primed for extraordinary earnings growth. They also discuss how America’s electrification mega trend goes beyond the AI data center buildout. Follow Chris on X: https://x.com/ChrisSemenuk Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Manufacturing Recession Ends…

Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN): https://teucrium.com/corn In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack Farley sits down with independent economist and strategist David Woo to break down the hidden realities behind global tech markets and macroeconomics. Woo reveals how component inflation and artificial "token maxing" have created an optical illusion of accelerating corporate earnings, obscuring a real-term slowdown in tech hyperscaler CapEx. Rather than arguing that artificial intelligence lacks power, Woo presents a stark AI bear case rooted in imminent global regulatory crackdowns as advanced frontier models like Claude Mythos introduce severe cybersecurity and national security risks. He predicts that the broader AI industry is rapidly heading toward intense competition and commoditization, which will ultimately turn current hardware shortages into a massive compute glut. Turning to geopolitics, Woo details why he remains heavily bullish on oil as active military conflicts between Iran…

Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN): https://teucrium.com/corn Conor Coleman, Head of Investments and Chief of Staff at the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), joins Monetary Matters to explain the DFC’s capacity as the international investment arm of the United States Government and its central role in economic statecraft. He and Jack discuss the Ukraine Mineral Deal, Strait of Hormuz Reinsurance Program, as well as several other deals and programs around the world that the DFC is involved in. Recorded June 8, 2026. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) website: https://www.dfc.gov/ DFC Project Data: https://www.dfc.gov/what-we-do/active-projects U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund: https://www.dfc.gov/investment-story/investing-ukraines-reconstruction-and-americas-security “US Agency to Own 20% of Graphite Miner Syrah in Critical Minerals Push”: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-26/us-agency-to-own-20-of-graphite-miner-syrah-in-critical-minerals-push ____ Jack Farley on X…

Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN): https://teucrium.com/corn In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack sits down with Matt Smith, the Director of Research at Kepler, to analyze how the global oil market is sleepwalking into a major supply crisis four months into the Iran war conflict. With the Strait of Hormuz closed for over three months, approximately 11 million barrels per day of crude supply have been removed from the market, forcing a global reduction of 9 million barrels per day in refinery runs. Smith explains that China's sudden decision to halt buying and scale back its own refinery operations temporarily freed up 4.5 million barrels per day for the global market, masking the true severity of the physical shortage. Meanwhile, the United States has acted as a primary buffer by heavily exporting refined products overseas, which has caused domestic inventories—particularly at the Cushing pricing hub—to deplete rapidly toward critical operational bottoms. Despite these deep structural…

In this episode of Other People’s Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with Michael Fritzell, author of Asian Century Stocks, to break down the massive valuation divergence playing out across Asian equity markets. Michael explains why he believes the skyrocketing AI and memory chip sectors in South Korea and Taiwan have entered dangerous bubble territory, fueled by unsustainable profit estimates that ignore looming Chinese supply. Instead of chasing the tech hype, he highlights the massive upside hidden in overlooked South Korean small caps and Japanese growth stocks that are trading at single-digit multiples despite solid fundamentals. Tune in to discover how corporate governance reforms, insider buying trends, and a forming "New Cold War" are creating the ultimate stock-picker's market. Read Asian Century Stocks: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/ Follow Michael on X: https://x.com/MikeFritzell Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M…